GCC car sales, February | Super 98 since March | Market forecast, 2026 | Extra shipping time |
▼-40-60% | ▲+69.9% | ▼-11.5% | ▲10-14 days |
Year on year | AED 4.40 a litre in October | Middle East light vehicles | Rerouted around the Cape |
Key takeaways
· GCC car sales fell 40-60% year on year in February as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed.1,2
· Super 98 costs AED 4.40 a litre in October, 69.9% more than in March; diesel is up 76.5%.3,4
· Forecasts made in May put the Middle East light vehicle market 11.5% smaller in 2026, about 350,000 fewer vehicles.2
· Budget and mid-range models are the hardest hit by stock shortages, and shipping takes 10-14 days longer.2
· In the used market, some European luxury cars and premium EVs lost up to 60% in three years while GCC-spec cars command 10-20% more.1
From the sea lane to the showroom
The crisis began at sea. In late February 2026 vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world's daily oil supply, fell by nearly 70%. By early April daily transits had fallen by approximately 95%, from 129-140 vessels a day to just 7, and the IEA reported oil throughput down from 20 million to 3.8 million barrels a day.2,4
Car buyers reacted at once. GCC car sales fell 40-60% year on year in February, and in March Toyota cut production for Middle Eastern markets by about 20,000 units as its regional sales fell by roughly 34,000 vehicles.1,2
Risk | Where it stands | Most exposed |
Fuel at the pump | Super 98 AED 4.40 and diesel AED 4.80 a litre in October; April alone brought rises of 30.9% and 72.4% | Every driver, diesel fleets most |
Oil supply | Brent back at around USD 105-107 in late September; supply improving but not normalised | Anyone budgeting on fuel |
Sales | GCC sales fell 40-60% year on year in February; the Middle East market is forecast 11.5% smaller in 2026 | Dealers and distributors |
Supply and stock | 10-14 extra days in transit; Toyota cut about 20,000 units for the region in March | Buyers of budget and mid-range models |
New-car prices | Aluminium up about 13%; UAE price index 105.41 against Saudi Arabia's 91.05 | UAE buyers |
Resale | Some European luxury cars and premium EVs lost up to 60% in three years; GCC-spec cars command 10-20% more | Owners of European luxury cars and older EVs |
The risk map: each risk, where it stands in our latest reporting, and who is most exposed.1–5
Fuel: the risk every driver pays
Brent rose from about USD 67 a barrel before the crisis to nearly USD 120 in early April, and the UAE's Murban benchmark briefly touched USD 152. No month in UAE history has seen a bigger fuel price rise than April: Super 98 went up 30.9% to AED 3.39 and diesel 72.4% to AED 4.69.2,4
Super 98 in the UAE, AED a litre, 2026
Up 69.9% from March to October. May and July are not in our sources.
Item | Super 98 |
March | AED 2.59 |
April | AED 3.39 |
June | AED 3.95 |
August | AED 3.60 |
September | AED 3.80 |
October | AED 4.40 |
Source: YallaMotor monthly fuel-price articles, March to October 2026.3–5
Prices have not come back. Brent dipped to an August average of about USD 87.7, then returned to around USD 105-107 by late September, and October brought another jump: Super 98 rose approximately 15.8% to AED 4.40 and diesel to AED 4.80. Against March that is 69.9% more for petrol and 76.5% more for diesel.3–5
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Readers feel this most. Our October fuel-price page drew 111,416 page views, the second-highest of any 2026 article and 9.6% of all the 2026 page views we counted.6
A smaller market this year
Forecasts made in May expect the Middle East light vehicle market to fall 11.5%, from 3.05 million units in 2025 to 2.7 million in 2026: about 350,000 fewer vehicles. Passenger cars take the bigger hit at 12%.2
How much smaller each market is forecast to be in 2026
Forecast fall against 2025, in per cent, made in May 2026.
Item | Forecast fall |
Middle East passenger cars | 12.0% |
Middle East light vehicles | 11.5% |
Light commercial vehicles | 9.0% |
Saudi passenger cars | 7.5% |
Source: GlobalData forecasts reported by YallaMotor, May 2026.2
Saudi Arabia's passenger car market is forecast to shrink 7.5%, from 772,000 to 714,000 units, and light commercial vehicles 9%. The same forecasts expect a broad recovery from 2027, led by diversification, particularly in the UAE.2
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Dearer to build, slower to arrive
The crisis also raised the cost of making and moving cars. Aluminium rose about 13% after the conflict began and petrochemical feedstocks an estimated 15-25%. Rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10-14 days in transit, and in May several GCC ports, including Kuwait's Shuaiba, had ceased operations.2
Budget and mid-range models are the hardest hit as makers favour premium cars. Chinese brands such as Haval, Jetour and Great Wall are filling some entry-level gaps, especially in Saudi Arabia. The UAE remains the GCC's dearest market for new cars, with a price index of 105.41 against 91.05 in Saudi Arabia.2
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Where the risk sits in the used market
Used values are splitting. The 2019-2021 Toyota Prado kept 85% of its value, and GCC-spec cars with verified histories command 10-20% more than import-spec ones. At the other end, some European luxury cars and premium EVs lost up to 60% of their value in three years.1
The brand mix is shifting too. Stellantis shipments to the GCC fell roughly 50% year on year in Q1 2026, while Chinese automakers now hold over 25% of the market in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.1
What to watch
Oil is the signal to follow. In late September supply was improving but had not fully normalised, and Brent was still around USD 105-107. In April, OPEC+ was reportedly considering easing production limits in Q4 2026; whether that happens will shape the next fuel reviews.4,5
Brent crude, USD a barrel, 2026
Oil fell back in the summer and rose again; late September was still well above the pre-crisis level.
Item | Brent |
Before the crisis | USD 67 |
Early April peak | USD 120 |
Mid-May | USD 106 |
August average | USD 88 |
Late September | USD 105 |
Source: YallaMotor fuel articles, April to September 2026. Approximate levels as reported.2,4,5
For buyers, the safest moves are the dull ones: count fuel at today's price, favour models and specs that hold value, and check the stock that is here before ordering. For sellers of European luxury cars, waiting has been expensive.1,3
Frequently asked questions
Why did car sales fall in the GCC in 2026?
The Hormuz crisis hit confidence, fuel and supply at once. GCC car sales fell 40-60% year on year in February.1,2
How much have UAE fuel prices risen since the crisis?
Super 98 went from AED 2.59 a litre in March to AED 4.40 in October, up 69.9%. Diesel rose 76.5% to AED 4.80.3,4
Will the car market recover?
Forecasts made in May expect a broad recovery from 2027, after an 11.5% smaller Middle East market in 2026.2
Which used cars hold their value best right now?
Japanese SUVs and GCC-spec cars with verified histories. The 2019-2021 Toyota Prado kept 85% of its value.1
How we worked this out
We brought together the oil, fuel, sales, supply and used-price figures published in six YallaMotor articles between March and 6 October 2026, and our own readership data for 2026. Annual sales figures are GlobalData forecasts reported in May 2026, not results. Brent comparisons use one article's pre-crisis level of about USD 67; another gives USD 72.87. March pump prices are worked back from April prices and the stated April rises, and match our March fuel table. The fill cost uses the 60-litre example in our fuel prediction article. Nothing here covers November 2026 prices.
Assumptions used in our calculations
· Tank fill: 60 litres — The 60-litre fill our fuel prediction article uses as its example.
Sources
1. Q1 2026 GCC Used Car Price Report: Which Brands Went Up, Which Crashed (YallaMotor article)
Ahmad Rashad Al Zeer · 8 Sept 2026 · retrieved 14 Sept 2026
https://www.yallamotor.com/news/q1-2026-gcc-used-car-price-report-brands-went-up-crashed-55353
2. Middle East Tensions Are Cutting 2026 Auto Sales by Tens of Thousands: What GCC Buyers Should Expect on Prices, Stock & Wait Times (YallaMotor article)
Ahmad Rashad Al Zeer · 11 Sept 2026 · retrieved 14 Sept 2026
https://www.yallamotor.com/news/middle-east-tensions-cutting-2026-auto-sales-what-gcc-buyers-should-expect-55351
3. Petrol Price in UAE October 2026: Fuel Prices in UAE Today (YallaMotor article)
Ahmad Rashad Al Zeer · 6 Oct 2026 · retrieved 7 Oct 2026
https://www.yallamotor.com/news/petrol-price-in-uae-9408
4. Why Are Fuel Prices Rising in the UAE in 2026 and What Should You Do About It? (YallaMotor article)
Ahmad Rashad Al Zeer · 9 Sept 2026 · retrieved 14 Sept 2026
https://www.yallamotor.com/news/why-fuel-prices-rising-uae-2026-55245
5. UAE Fuel Price Prediction for Next Month - Petrol Prices for October 2026 (YallaMotor article)
Ahmad Rashad Al Zeer · 7 Oct 2026 · retrieved 7 Oct 2026
https://www.yallamotor.com/news/petrol-price-prediction-for-next-month-53668
6. YallaMotor readership statistics: articles published in 2026 (YallaMotor readership data)
YallaMotor Research · 7 Oct 2026 · retrieved 7 Oct 2026
https://www.yallamotor.com/news
Every figure on this page links to the source it came from. Judgement and recommendations are labelled YallaMotor analysis.
